Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 22.926093 26.915378 31.771757 38.246564 46.859980 58.249684 75.057325
2025-02-02 19.032246 23.941548 30.609094 40.765383 56.758682 82.938726 134.584337
2025-02-09 15.679355 20.436142 27.282015 38.523429 58.143803 95.249377 187.252111
2025-02-16 14.243957 19.191127 26.715888 40.033867 65.957189 123.904074 319.604333
2025-02-23 12.839044 17.704640 25.403038 39.806597 70.342824 149.088014 513.863577
2025-03-02 11.726647 16.481311 24.254809 39.507481 74.417262 177.835175 873.710137
2025-03-09 10.954906 15.681994 23.661941 40.086407 80.826750 222.230085 1877.497530
2025-03-16 9.998447 14.463346 22.140891 38.393695 80.736336 243.820704 3354.695521
2025-03-23 9.389896 13.758896 21.445164 38.304721 85.130356 293.733011 11375.513074
2025-03-30 8.617428 12.701624 19.962943 36.157423 82.541081 305.147307 28551.314308
2025-04-06 7.897825 11.681062 18.448925 33.691681 78.160382 301.641581 65711.125113
2025-04-13 7.309941 10.850390 17.224890 31.730527 74.884450 302.948710 352267.087623
2025-04-20 7.518284 11.459438 18.905901 37.246322 101.127584 640.283961 NaN
2025-04-27 7.375500 11.421291 19.292497 39.670288 118.668950 1119.944098 NaN
2025-05-04 6.870994 10.670256 18.100941 37.515006 114.325363 1178.438181 NaN
2025-05-11 6.695009 10.521535 18.174260 38.967257 128.975245 2095.972448 NaN
2025-05-18 6.412134 10.146366 17.711757 38.748807 134.997368 3120.633691 NaN
2025-05-25 6.149464 9.791209 17.256384 38.461265 140.704755 4905.330862 NaN
2025-06-01 5.962852 9.570534 17.079804 39.017755 152.664499 11393.641313 NaN
2025-06-08 5.656421 9.094902 16.276443 37.390224 148.595958 13930.306160 NaN
2025-06-15 5.465092 8.836570 15.954197 37.304640 155.953592 39396.416287 NaN
2025-06-22 5.171829 8.359730 15.085688 35.238069 146.880734 34492.993683 NaN
2025-06-29 4.876193 7.866913 14.153865 32.862358 134.612780 21505.625638 NaN